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The Most Important Things to Understand About Alaska’s Fiscal Situation

The fall in oil prices has led to growing concern among Alaskans about the state's fiscal situation. To help Alaskans better understand this critical issue, Gunnar Knapp, ISER's director and a professor of economics, has been making a presentation to organizations around Alaska.

Download the full presentation (pdf, 1.7MB) or a summary (pdf, 467.7KB), The Most Important Things to Understand About Alaska's Fiscal Situation, by Gunnar Knapp. The presentation will be updated over time. If you have questions, get in touch with Gunnar Knapp at 907-786-7717 or Gunnar.Knapp@uaa.alaska.edu.

ISER publications are solely the work of individual authors and should be attributed to them, not to ISER, the University of Alaska Anchorage, or the research sponsors.

  • 30 Jan 2015

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Maximum Sustainable Yield: FY 2016 Update

Alaska's state government could spend $4.5 billion for general expenses this year and every year long into the future, without depleting the state's petroleum assets. That's the most recent estimate of sustainable General Fund spending by Scott Goldsmith, professor emeritus of economics at ISER. He began estimating that sustainable spending level in 2012, adjusting it annually with changes in the size of state petroleum assets. He currently estimates those assets (consisting of savings accounts and expected revenues from future petroleum production) at $135 billion.
  • 14 Jan 2015

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A Free Public Forum, October 4: Less Money and Higher Costs

Alaska Common Ground and ISER recently sponsored a non-partisan public forum, with analysts from government, the University of Alaska, and private industry discussing choices the state government will likely face as pressure on the state budget increases. Oil from Alaska’s North Slope has supported the state’s government and economy for decades. But oil production has been dropping—at the same time population and state spending have been growing and the government’s debt obligations, pension liabilities, and other costs have been increasing. Now you can watch panel discussions from the October 4 forum on Alaska Common Ground's website.
  • 24 Sep 2014

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Incentives and Assumptions: Comparing Alaska's Oil Production Taxes

Alaskans will soon vote on whether to keep the state's new oil production tax, known as SB 21, that went into effect this year, or to go back to the previous tax, called Alaska's Clear and Equitable Share (ACES). A new analysis by Matthew Berman, professor of economics at ISER, looks broadly at how the new tax compares with the tax it replaced, examining not only how future state revenues might differ under the two systems, but also other differences—how the two compare with older production tax regimes and how government-industry relationships vary under the two systems. He finds that SB 21 has a number of drawbacks, compared with earlier systems, including its administrative complexity and its low effective tax rate for new oil—which means that the state's percentage share of the value of the oil is likely to decline over time. He identifies the one major problem with ACES as its high effective tax rates, which could hamper new investment. Overall, Dr. Berman concludes that the tax system in place before ACES—the Petroleum Profits Tax, replaced by ACES in 2007—is arguably a better fit for Alaska, because it had neither the high tax rates of ACES nor the administrative complexity of SB 21. Download the full analysis, Comparing Alaska's Oil Production Taxes: Incentives and Assumptions (PDF, 684KB). If you have questions, get in touch with Gunnar Knapp, ISER's director, at gpknapp@uaa.alaska.edu or 907-786-7717.
  • 07 Aug 2014

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July 23 Forum on the Oil-Tax Referendum

In the primary election scheduled for August 19, Alaskans will vote on whether to keep or repeal the new state oil-production tax system, commonly known as Senate Bill (SB) 21. Alaska Common Ground and several co-sponsors (including ISER) are holding a forum on the oil-tax referendum on July 23, in the Wilda Marston Theatre of Anchorage's Loussac Library, from 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. The forum is free and open to the public. Speaking in favor of repealing the new tax will be Bill Wielechowski, a state senator from Anchorage, and Gregg Erickson, a long-time Alaska economist. Supporting the new system will be Brad Keithley, an oil and gas policy consultant, and Roger Marks, a veteran petroleum economist. ISER's director, Gunnar Knapp, will moderate the discussion. Alaska Common Ground is a non-profit organization that brings Alaskans together to talk about Alaska public policy issues. For more information, go to www.akcommonground.org or call 907-952-3353.
  • 17 Jul 2014

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Workshop June 27 on Model Used for Oil Tax Analysis

Updated on June 27, 2014 On Friday, June 27, Scott Goldsmith, professor emeritus of economics at ISER, will host a technical workshop, open to the public, to discuss the model used in his recent analysis (pdf, 2.6MB) of future revenues under the state’s old method of taxing oil production, called ACES, and the new method that went into effect in January, known as SB21 or MAPA. When: Friday, June 27, 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. Where: UAA Consortium Library, Room 307. Parking is free on UAA campus this week. Available for download: Analysis (pdf, 2.6MB) Analysis model (.xlsx, 234KB) Presentation - May 1, 2014 (pdf, 3.95MB) to the Resource Development Council Presentation - June 25, 2014 (pdf, 3.45MB) to Commonwealth North If you are planning on attending the workshop, please RSVP by calling (907) 786-7710 so we know how many to expect.
  • 19 Jun 2014

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Alaska's Oil Production Tax: Comparing the Old and the New

Last year the Alaska Legislature made a controversial change in the oil production tax, the state’s largest source of oil revenue. The old tax, known as ACES (Alaska’s Clear and Equitable Share), was replaced with MAPA (More Alaska Production Act, or SB21).  Critics and supporters of the change strongly disagree about which tax structure would benefit Alaska the most over time—and in August voters will decide whether they want to keep or repeal the new tax.

  • 01 May 2014

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Wealth Management for the Owner State

A presentation by Scott Goldsmith, professor emeritus of economics at ISER, to Commonwealth North, examining whether the state government is saving enough of its petroleum wealth to sustain economic prosperity into the future—and if the state isn't saving enough, how it could. 

Download the PDF (3.5MB)

  • 05 Mar 2013

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Maintaining Oil Wealth for the Long Run: Maximum Sustainable Yield

Alaska’s state government is sitting pretty right now, with oil revenues at record levels, $60 billion in savings, and maybe another $100 billion worth of petroleum in the ground. Still, a new paper by Scott Goldsmith, professor emeritus of economics at ISER, finds that trouble is looming, with declining oil production and growing state spending. 

  • 13 Aug 2012

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TAPS at 35: Accounting for the Oil Revenues

Oil started flowing through the trans-Alaska 35 years ago this summer, on June 20, 1977. Since then, the state government has collected $170 billion in revenues from North Slope oil, in today's dollars. A new paper by Scott Goldsmith, professor emeritus of economics at ISER, assesses what the state has done with its oil wealth so far. 

To read the paper, click here (PDF, 944.8KB).

  • 11 Jul 2012
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