oil

A new analysis by Scott Goldsmith, professor of economics at ISER, estimates that Alaska’s state government currently has a petroleum nest egg of about $155 billion, including both the value of revenues from oil and gas yet to be produced and money already in the bank. The state can afford to spend about $6.2 billion a year from the earnings of that nest egg for decades to come, taking population growth into account. But this fiscal year, the state is expected to spend close to $7 billion—shrinking the nest egg for coming generations. 

Since 2005, Alaska’s state government has collected as much in oil revenues as it did during the huge oil-revenue boom of the early 1980s: a combination of high oil prices and changes in the way the state calculates production taxes has created a second huge oil-revenue boom. But the oil creating this wealth is dwindling. That oil is from huge, low-cost oil fields on state-owned land, including the Prudhoe Bay field, and it has supported much of the economy and paid for most state government operations for decades.

Think about this: if oil had never been discovered on the North Slope, Alaska's economy today would be about half as big. And to keep the economy healthy as time goes on, Alaska needs new oil production: nothing else—including North Slope natural gas—can replace oil in the state's economy. These are the findings of a new paper by Scott Goldsmith, professor of economics at ISER.